FOREX Daily Outlook

Stock markets Around the World Extending Gains

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was on the back foot in the risk on environment with the market selling before the FOMC statement but buying back after. Strong November Retail Sales at 0.8% vs. 0.6% helped to push US stocks to fresh year highs. In US stocks, DJIA +47 points closing at 11476, S&P +1 points closing at 1241 and NASDAQ +2 points closing at 2627. Looking ahead, November CPI is forecast at 0.2% vs. 0.2% previously.

The Euro (EUR) tested 1.3500 in the European session but failed at the key resistance and pulled back into the US FOMC statement and extended the pullback afterwards when the Dollar rallied. German ZEW survey improved at 4.3 vs. 1.8 previously. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3354 and a high of 1.3500 before closing at 1.3370.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) tested below Y83 before stronger US Retail Sales helped the pair begin to rally when US bond yields increased after the FOMC. The US and Japan have similar Interest Rates at near 0% so any move higher in US interest rate expectations has a major effect. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 82.82 and a high of 83.86 before closing the day around 83.60 in the New York session. UPDATE Q4 Tankan Manufacturing Index at 5 vs. 8 previously.

The Sterling (GBP) Strong CPI at 0.4% m/m in November pushed yearly figures to 3.3% and supported Cable as it tested 1.5900 in Early Europe. The mood changed dramatically however as EUR/GBP began to rally and USD found strength with market falling sharply back below 1.5800. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5737 and a high of 1.5914 before closing the day at 1.5760 in the New York session. Looking ahead, November Claimant Count is forecast at -3k vs. -3.7k previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) did well in the risk on trading breaking above 1.0000 and overcoming much of the USD strength to close just under parity. AUD/JPY push in the Y83 level comfortably and AUD/NZD is remaining near Year highs on NZD underperformance. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9941 and a high of 1.0031 before closing the US session at 0.9980.

Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold pushed above $1400 but reversed sharply above the level to finish unchanged. Overall trading with a low of USD$1391 and high of USD $1408 before ending the New York session at USD$1395 an ounce. Failed twice at $89 and pulled back to lower $88 supports. WTI Oil Closed -$0.46 at $88.15 a barrel.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency	Sup 2	Sup 1	Spot	Res 1	Res 2
EUR/USD	1.3183	1.3303	1.3355	1.3626	1.3634
USD/JPY	81.66	82.34	83.85	84.41	85.40
GBP/USD	1.5581	1.5712	1.5760	1.5911	1.5965
AUD/USD	0.9833	0.9943	0.9955	1.0031	1.0091
XAU/USD	1380.00	1392	1396	1431	1438
OIL/USD	87.00	88.00	88.10	89.50	90.00

Euro – 1.3355                    

Initial support at 1.3303 (61.8% retrace of 1.3183-1.3499) followed by 1.3183 (Dec 13 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3626 (50% retrace of 1.4282-1.2969) followed by 1.3634 (Nov 23 high)

Yen – 83.85

Initial support is located at 82.34 (Dec 7 high) followed by 81.66 (Nov 12 low). Initial resistance is now at 84.41 (Nov 29 high) followed by 85.40 (Sept 24 high).

Pound – 1.5760

Initial support at 1.5712 (Dec 9 Low) followed by 1.5581 (Dec 3 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5911 (Dec 14 high) followed by 1.5965 (Nov 23 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.9955

Initial support at 0.9943 (Dec 14 low) followed by the 0.9833 (Dec 13 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0031 (76.4% retrace of 1.0183-0.9537) followed by 1.0091 (Nov 11 high).

Gold – 1396

Initial support at 1392 (Dec 14 low) followed by 1380 (Dec 13 low). Initial resistance is now at 1431 (Dec 7 high) followed by 1438 (1329.70 plus 1315.45-1424.60).

Oil – 88.10

Initial support at 88.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 87.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 89.50 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 90.00 (Intraday Resistance).